@Article{MarengoValvObre:2013:ObPrCh,
               author = "Marengo, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Valverde, Maria C. and Obregon, 
                         Guillermo O.",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Federal 
                         University of ABC (UFABC)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Observed and projected changes in rainfall extremes in the 
                         metropolitan area of S{\~a}o Paulo",
              journal = "Climate Research",
                 year = "2013",
               volume = "57",
               number = "1",
                pages = "61--72",
             keywords = "climate assessment, dynamical downscaling, emissions scenarios, 
                         extreme precipitation events, heavy precipitation, metropolitan 
                         area, natural climate variabilities, total precipitation, climate 
                         change, climate models, floods, uncertainty analysis, rain, 
                         climate modeling, climate variation, downscaling, extreme event, 
                         flash flood, flooding, future prospect, landslide, metropolitan 
                         area, precipitation, prediction, trend analysis, uncertainty 
                         analysis, urbanization, weather forecasting.",
             abstract = "Changes in rainfall extremes and flooding are becoming more 
                         frequent in many countries, particularly in large cities where 
                         people and assets are concentrated. In the Metropolitan Area of 
                         the city of S{\~a}o Paulo (MASP) region, heavy or extreme 
                         precipitation events have important effects on society. Flash 
                         floods and landslides, associated with intense, but often brief, 
                         rainfall events, may be the most destructive of extreme events. 
                         Observations since the mid-1930s in the MASP region have shown 
                         significant increases in total and heavy rainfall and decreases in 
                         light rain. This was probably due to natural climate variability, 
                         but with some signals of the urbanization effect, especially 
                         during the last 40 yr. Here projections of future changes in 
                         rainfall extremes in the MASP region were derived from the 
                         Eta-CPTEC 40 km regional model nested in the HadCM3 global model, 
                         with 4 available realizations of the global model for the A1B 
                         emissions scenario to the end of the 21st century. Trends were 
                         assessed for significance using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall 
                         test. Projections, based on percentiles and on the number of days 
                         with rainfall above a certain limit, suggested: (a) an increase in 
                         total precipitation, (b) an increase in heavy precipitation and in 
                         the contribution to total precipitation from more intense rainfall 
                         events, and (c) the possibility of longer dry periods separating 
                         days with intense rain in the MASP region. The trends were 
                         stronger and more significant in the second half of the 21st 
                         century. We are aware that dynamical downscaling may not provide 
                         information at the weather station level and that climate modeling 
                         does not resolve all uncertainties. However, we believe that this 
                         exercise enables climate assessments that, in time, can be used 
                         for general public information.",
                  doi = "10.3354/cr01160",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01160",
                 issn = "0936-577X",
                label = "scopus 2013-11",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "c057p061.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "21 maio 2024"
}